kent_allard_jr (
kent_allard_jr) wrote2010-09-20 01:32 pm
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Fun with Bayes!
I'm always happy when xkcd does stat jokes:

I may talk about Bayes' Theorem in class this semester (the first time I'll be doing so). For those who enjoy these little games... Assume only 1 in 2 million Americans knows 'that statistic.' If you walk down the road and find an American killed by lightening, what's the chance that he knew it?

I may talk about Bayes' Theorem in class this semester (the first time I'll be doing so). For those who enjoy these little games... Assume only 1 in 2 million Americans knows 'that statistic.' If you walk down the road and find an American killed by lightening, what's the chance that he knew it?
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Taking the cartoon's stated figure of 45 Americans killed by lightning each year, which should include the 25 described above, that means that 55% of lightning deaths are people who know the statistic.
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I figure our estimates are close enough, given the imprecision of the data sources.
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